Local elections are different from national elections, in that they are in reality often decided long, long before Election Day. In local races, there is rarely enough money spent, effort put in, or media coverage to really change the race in any meaningful way, so elections are often decided by the strengths and weaknesses of candidates the moment they sign up to put their name on the ballot.
Based on that notion, along with some early primary data, here are my predictions for the City of West Lafayette elections, some 9 months from today.
Bottom Line: Council will have a 5-2 Democratic veto proof majority and will have the leverage necessary to achieve far more then in the previous term.
Mayor -
John Dennis (R) turned in about 10% more votes then the two other leading Republicans who were on the city wide ballot. This likely means he pulled a number of cross-over D votes. While this data is not convincing, incumbents with even a small cross over showing are usually very hard to beat unless some dramatic new dynamic is injected into the race. Winner: Dennis (R)
Clerk-Treasurer -
Unopposed - Judy Rhodes (R)
District 1 -
Results from last night were simply to small to be meaningful, but with even a few months of incumbency and a better network having been a more recent student, Eddie VanBogaert (D) is very likely to take the District 1 relatively easily. Winner: VanBogaert (D)
District 2 -
Peter Bunder is unopposed in the general and since the Republican/Landlord lobby put up their challenger in the primary its unlikely they will field another candidate against him. Winner: Bunder (D)
District 3 -
I would say it is extremely unlikely that the Republicans put up a candidate to challenge Ann Hunt. Winner: Hunt (D)
District 4 -
This is going to be the race to watch, and probably the real battleground for control of West Lafayette politics. The tipping point on a veto proof Democratic majority on the council. Vicki Burch (R) had a rough first term, took a couple of controversial votes and made a number of controversial statements. So Burch has some liabilities but its unclear if Diane Damico will be able to capitalize on them in this down ballot local race that wont get much if any press coverage. Winner: Damico (D)
District 5 -
Rod Forbes (D) appeared to be a very strong challenger to long term incumbent Gerry Keen (R) but the vote total from the primary was so lopsided in favor of Keen, that it appears that it will be very unlikely that Keen will be challenged in any serious way. Winner: Keen (R)
At-Large (two seats) -
What is interesting in this race is that Gerald Thomas (D) got more votes then the Mayor. If nothing unusual happens he should walk into reelection, along with Dietrich (R). Hass may really make this race interesting if he decides to spend out of his personal funds lavishly as he has done in two previous electoral attempts, but even then I would say the results are unlikely to change: Winners: Thomas (D), Dietrich (R)
City Judge -
Unopposed - Lori Stein Sabol (D)
